Current Issue - Waypoints Release 3.0

   Waypoints Release 3.0a.pdf (568 Kb)

In Waypoints 3.0:

Thanks for joining us!
 
First off, we’re hosting a conference call on Monday, Sep. 26 at 11:00am EDT to talk about our views on the market as well as specific stocks. Dial in: (703) 639-1162, Toll Free: (866) 238-1641, Pin Number: 772094. We’d love to have you join!

This is the third of four planned Beta releases of Waypoints. After issue four, we will be moving to a paid subscription basis. We aim to help make sense of the sometimes overwhelming and confusing world of global tech, telecom and media and perhaps help in increasing the clarity and conviction you have in the decisions you need to make in the changing world and save you time in clearing through the muck.

Below, we providing the text portion of "Short Question, Short Answer" section, which provides a quick synopsis of our thinking along with a pdf file of the entire Release 3.0 of the Waypoints Thought Piece and a pdf file of Pip’s Updated Reading list. Happy reading!

 -pip
Coburn Ventures 

===========================
Waypoints Release 3.0: short questions …short answers

“It’s not coming back. There’s this childlike notion that the IT industry is different than the auto industry or the railroad industry. That IT will always be immature, it will always be run by venture capitalists up on Sand Hill Road, by clever entrepreneurs with the Next Great Thing. And if you dare not agree with them, they say you just don’t get it. Get what? The industry is maturing. The valley will never be what it was….”… Larry Ellison

Reminder: We’ll be hosting a conference call on Monday, September 26th at 11am. Dial in: (866) 238-1641, (703) 639-1162 PIN: 772094

Yi Tan Technology Call: Date: Monday, Sept 19th Time:10:30 PDT, 1:30 EDT Dial-in:1-800-615-2900 1-661-705-2005 Passcode: 778778

Q: What do you make of Oracle / Siebel?
… we “get it.” What happens when maturity finally comes to an industry? Consolidation. What is Larry Ellison doing? Consolidating. What are many many small cap software companies doing? Looking for exit strategies. We suspect the take-out premiums will remain low … 17% for SEBL, BEA / Plumtree and SSA / EPNY in the 10-15% range…

Q: How ‘bout eBay / Skype?
…don’t get it. Lots more in Always On … page 27 …

Q: What do you make of Microsoft’s re-org?
… don’t get it. A “more nimble” Microsoft sounds good in theory. But it’s not clear to us how this particular restructuring will help. This week, we discuss that cutting R&D more aggressively would be a better signal to us that Microsoft truly “gets it”. If MSFT had spent … say … 12% of revenues on R&D in FY05 instead of the 16% they did spend, they’d tack on an extra $0.15 in EPS and still have a $4.6b R&D budget. More on page 16…

Q: Who else among the large caps don’t seem to “get” that tech is mature and that process innovation, not product innovation is warranted …?
Intel, Cisco, Nokia, Lenovo … Those who do get it - AAPL, IBM, QCOM, ORCL, ERICY, DELL, MOT… more on page 29 …

Q: What themes are you watching MOST closely at Apple? Tiger sales …iPod sales … iMac sales …?
None of the above. We are extremely interested in Apple’s retail stores - which we view as conduits where analogists can go to comfortably migrate to the digital world. This week, we dig into Apple’s model to examine how big a role retail stores play … page 7...

Q: What events do you care most about in the next 3-4 weeks?
… Sept 28th: RIMM Earnings … Sept 28th: Garmin Analyst Day …October 5-7th - Web 2.0 Conference … October 6th: Accenture Earnings …more on page 18…